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Thursday, August 3, 2017

"Can We Survive a Nuclear North Korea"



MarkAndrewZ Guest Writer: Ozy Senior Columnist John McLaughlin
OZY Senior Columnist John McLaughlin teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and was deputy director and acting director of the CIA from 2000 to 2004. Follow him on Twitter: @jmclaughlinSAIS.
Time to manage our expectations. Having most likely lost the battle to keep nukes out of North Korean hands, the problem turns now to dealing with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.
The U.S. military still has options, but it’s increasingly likely that one of them is not a pre-emptive strike to neutralize North Korea’s capability. Why?
  • The program is now too large, too advanced and too dispersed, with much of it hidden deep underground.
  • The North has the ability to retaliate with massive artillery strikes on heavily populated areas in South Korea.
  • Pyongyang has an intermediate-range missile force that can hit the South, Japan and other neighbors. Many of its missiles are mobile, making them harder to track and target. It is also starting to use solid fuel in some of them, which makes them more agile because it can dispense with transporting cumbersome liquid fuel. Finally, it already may have the capability to mount nuclear warheads on some of its intermediate-range missiles.
Data is still emerging on North Korea’s latest missile test on July 24, but it was another attempt to refine its version of an intercontinental missile that could hit the United States. It appears to have had a larger second stage than the one that was tested on July 4, which probably accounts for the greater projected range. Estimates vary on the number of nuclear weapons it already has, ranging from eight to as many as 30.
This latest missile went nearly straight up for about 2,300 miles; when flattened out over a normal missile trajectory, this means it could reach into the central United States. That said, North Korea probably still needs to master a few things, including accuracy. An early video of this test suggests that the North cannot yet shield a re-entry-stage warhead against the heat of atmospheric re-entry. It is also uncertain whether it can yet miniaturize a nuclear warhead sufficiently to fit on the missile’s small third stage.
So now what? American leaders are now forced into a highly complex foreign policy strategy when it comes to Pyongyang — one that requires great agility and close coordination across government departments. Donald Trump’s administration has not yet had to deal with an issue so complicated and so dependent on effective teamwork.
Trump’s team deserves credit for responding forcefully to Syria’s use of chemical weapons in April. But the instrument they used — a cruise missile attack — was a single blunt instrument, compared to the complicated mix of policies North Korea requires. Trump’s appointment of highly disciplined former Marine General and Homeland Security secretary John Kelly as White House chief of staff may help, particularly if he can help national security adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster bring order to the cross-agency coordination of foreign policy.
What are some things they must consider? Most of the strategy fits under the broad heading of deterrence. Although this was the heart of our strategy during the long Cold War, it took years of warily circling with the Soviet Union to develop some mutually understood rules. With North Korea, we are dealing with a regime that has no such experience, headed by a leader that no U.S. official has met.
Still, deterrence can work if orchestrated systematically, using all the tools at our disposal. The first simple requirement is messaging this to the North: Using your nuclear weaponry will draw a devastating response certain to eliminate your regime. This would provoke frenetic saber-rattling, but as the director of national intelligence recently said, Kim Jong-UN is an “unusual person but probably not crazy.” In other words, he will understand, and his overriding goal will be to preserve the regime.
We can underline this with what the military calls “flexible deterrent options.” These are steps short of kinetic engagement that demonstrate power and resolve, such as this week’s flight over the Korean Peninsula by U.S. supersonic fighter jets and bombers and the U.S. demonstration launch of an ICBM over the Pacific this week. Reinforcing such demonstrations? South Korea’s plan to boost the explosive power of conventional warheads on missiles it has pointing north.
Missile defense has a deterrent role as well. South Korean leader Moon Jae-in just removed a hold he had placed on the deployment of a major anti-ballistic missile system the United States wants to station in the South. Japan, meanwhile, says it wants to beef up missile defense. In May, Washington also demonstrated its ability to shoot down an intercontinental ballistic missile in a test over the Pacific, although this system is not yet fail-safe. Although generally deemed too expensive and difficult, we can also look again at the feasibility of a space-based missile intercept system.
Tougher sanctions on the North, such as those just authorized by Congress, can add to the pressure, but sanctions alone will never be enough given the regime’s apparent disregard for the welfare of its populace. China can be helpful, but we can’t “outsource” the problem to Beijing, the way President Trump has suggested via Twitter:



...they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. 
China could easily solve this problem!
There are no guarantees of progress, but these are the options given our new reality. It brings to mind President John Kennedy’s sentiment, in a different context, about the challenges of a “long twilight struggle.”
That is almost certainly what we are facing with The Hermit Kingdom.

author bio imageJohn McLaughlin, Senior Contributor - OZY
#markandrewz





Saturday, July 22, 2017



                                         Markie Z Interview on Paul Mash TV

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Are Children Debating Healthcare While Congress Deliberates?



I miss my parents.  I believe that many people my age feel the same way.  My parents tried to help me in every way they could to the best of their ability. Now that they are gone I reflect upon my life and constantly review in my head if I did all that could for my children.

I saw a quote today from John Wooden posted by Dr. William Hang.  It read, “Today is the only day.  Tomorrow is gone.”  I wonder how Wooden felt about his parents?  As for Dr. William Hang, I met him not too long ago.  I happened to be attending a conference that both a business partner and Dr. Hang were giving lectures.  I sat in and listened to Dr. Hang because there was a “major buzz” going on about him.  I didn’t know any of the people in attendance.  But I have earned my living and survived on my visceral instincts and picking up the vibe.  There was something going on about this gentleman, Dr. Hang.

From the moment, he began speaking and presenting his lecture on the video screen he had me captured.  Let me take the author’s license to say that does not happen very often.  I have had enough bumps and bruises in the world of business, skillful neglect and selective memory purveyed upon me to pretty much always flip the compressor on in my mind and ask myself, “what is this person really saying to me?”  I flipped the switch and found out that Dr. Hang was about to recount my life to me.  Photo by photo of early childhood through teen years and beyond I saw myself in those pictures.  I said, “Mark, that is you!” 

Dr. Hang discussed, “airway.”   He said an adequate airway is the most important factor in a child’s facial development.  Hmmm…  He continued to say “genetics” determine factors such as hair color, eye color and height.  In contrast, he said altered oral posture determines whether or not the face will be well balanced. 

Truth be told, it is one thing hearing those words spoken.  But it is a riveting 180 degree turn when you hear those words and look at the time lined photos simultaneously.  There I was!  My teeth are crowded, my face seemed to be balanced, but maybe not.  My airway?  Hey, I have sleep apnea and high blood pressure.  I can’t sleep at all without my C-PAP machine!  Didn’t my parents notice this in my youth?  Surely if they knew they would have done something about it.  As one can imagine there were an innumerable amount of thoughts flashing through my mind at light speed.  Luckily, I did not have the pain, a constant tired feeling, listlessness, drowsiness and a difficulty to focus that go along with the other symptoms.  But many children and adults per Dr. Hang’s presentation had all the above.  Needless to say, their quality of life suffered painfully.

Upon Dr. Hang’s conclusion, most of the audience rushed up to the front to speak with him.  As did I.  But I waited for all to have their time with him.  I am not a doctor.  He may not even want to speak with me.  I didn’t know.  I walked up and found him to be extremely cordial and sincere.  I told him about what I had just experienced.  He smiled at me in a very humble way as if I was giving him too much credit.  Then he said, if I would have had work done on me back when I was young according to what the specialists at that time knew, I would probably be dead!  Well, I guess my parents, once again, were right after all!  Wow!  Then he asked me if I used a C-PAP machine?  I said, “Yes.”  He said, “Good, keep using it!”

I know one may think the title to this letter may be a little bit misleading.  In reality, it is not.   Another thing, this letter is not political by any means.  Our children may not be debating healthcare at this very moment in their lives.  But they are “living” their lives.  Healthcare will pop-up as a serious thought to consider at some point for them in the future.  Yesterday is gone.  We have learned from the past.  Today is the only day.  Check out: www.facefocused.com .  It will change your life and your children’s lives.

06/26/2017
Mark Andrew Zwartynski
@markandrewz
markandrew@markandrewgroup.com